In 'Predicting the Presidency,' George C. Edwards III delves into the art and science of forecasting presidential elections. He challenges traditional methods and reveals powerful insights on voter behavior and election dynamics. With a mix of historical data and contemporary analysis, Edwards offers a compelling look at what truly drives electoral outcomes. Can political phenomena be measured and predicted with accuracy? This book invites readers to reconsider their assumptions about the unpredictability of the American presidency.
By George C. Edwards III
Published: 2016
"In the game of politics, the only certainty is uncertainty, yet through careful analysis and understanding, we can illuminate the shadows of prediction."
Millions of Americans—including many experienced politicians—viewed Barack Obama through a prism of high expectations, based on a belief in the power of presidential persuasion. Yet many who were inspired by candidate Obama were disappointed in what he was able to accomplish once in the White House. They could not understand why he often was unable to leverage his position and political skills to move the public and Congress to support his initiatives. Predicting the Presidency explains why Obama had such difficulty bringing about the change he promised, and challenges the conventional wisdom about presidential leadership. In this incisive book, George Edwards shows how we can ask a few fundamental questions about the context of a presidency—the president's strategic position or opportunity structure—and use the answers to predict a president's success in winning support for his initiatives. If presidential success is largely determined by a president's strategic position, what role does persuasion play? Almost every president finds that a significant segment of the public and his fellow partisans in Congress are predisposed to follow his lead. Others may support the White House out of self-interest. Edwards explores the possibilities of the president exploiting such support, providing a more realistic view of the potential of presidential persuasion. Written by a leading presidential scholar, Predicting the Presidency sheds new light on the limitations and opportunities of presidential leadership.
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“In the game of politics, the only certainty is uncertainty, yet through careful analysis and understanding, we can illuminate the shadows of prediction.”
Predicting the Presidency
By George C. Edwards III
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George C. Edwards III is a distinguished American political scientist and author, renowned for his expertise in the fields of the presidency and public policy. He is the author of notable works including "Overreach: Presidential Power and the Constitution" and "The Presidential Moment: A National Perspective on the American Presidency." Edwards is known for his rigorous analytical style and his ability to engage readers with clear, compelling arguments. His contributions to the understanding of presidential power and its implications for American democracy have made him a prominent voice in contemporary political discourse.
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