In "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," Philip E. Tetlock unveils the secrets behind extraordinary predictors who consistently outsmart average forecasters. Delving into the cognitive techniques and mental habits that empower these super forecasters, he bridges the gap between intuition and data analysis. The book challenges conventional wisdom about forecasting, emphasizing that with the right mindset, anyone can enhance their predictive abilities. Through fascinating case studies and practical insights, Tetlock demonstrates how nuanced thinking and open-mindedness can transform our understanding of future events. Prepare to reshape your approach to uncertainty and discover the science behind becoming a master of predictions.
By Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Published: 2015
"Good forecasting is about managing our own beliefs."
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
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“Good forecasting is about managing our own beliefs.”
Superforecasting
By Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Discover a world of knowledge through our extensive collection of book summaries.
Philip E. Tetlock is a renowned psychologist, author, and professor, known for his pioneering research in the field of judgment and decision-making. He is particularly esteemed for his work on expert forecasting and the psychology of prediction, which has significantly influenced both academia and practical applications in policy-making.
Tetlock is best known for his acclaimed books, including "Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?" (2005), which critiques the efficacy of experts' predictions on political events, and "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" (2015), co-authored with Dan Gardner. In "Superforecasting," Tetlock explores the traits and methodologies that distinguish exceptional forecasters and emphasizes the importance of probabilistic thinking in uncertain environments.
His writing style is characterized by clarity and accessibility, often blending empirical research with practical insights, making complex ideas understandable to a broad audience. Tetlock has also contributed to the discourse on accountability and the cognitive biases that affect decision-making, establishing himself as a leading figure in the intersection of psychology, policy, and future studies. He currently teaches at the University of California, Berkeley, where he continues to influence students and scholars alike.
Dan Gardner is a Canadian author and journalist renowned for his insightful exploration of risk, decision-making, and human behavior. He is the co-author of the bestselling book "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," alongside Philip E. Tetlock, which delves into the principles of effective forecasting and the psychology behind decision-making processes. Gardner’s notable works also include "Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear," where he examines how fear influences our perceptions and policymaking.
Gardner's writing is characterized by a blend of rigorous research, engaging storytelling, and a commitment to clarity, making complex subjects accessible to a broad audience. His ability to interweave personal anecdotes with empirical evidence helps to illuminate the nuances of his themes. With a background in journalism, Gardner's work reflects both thorough investigation and a narrative style that captivates readers. He continues to contribute to discussions on risk and decision-making through various media and public speaking engagements.
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