In "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," Philip E. Tetlock unveils the secrets behind extraordinary predictors who consistently outsmart average forecasters. Delving into the cognitive techniques and mental habits that empower these super forecasters, he bridges the gap between intuition and data analysis. The book challenges conventional wisdom about forecasting, emphasizing that with the right mindset, anyone can enhance their predictive abilities. Through fascinating case studies and practical insights, Tetlock demonstrates how nuanced thinking and open-mindedness can transform our understanding of future events. Prepare to reshape your approach to uncertainty and discover the science behind becoming a master of predictions.
By Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Published: 2015
"Good forecasting is about managing our own beliefs."
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Showing 8 of 29 similar books
David Heinemeier Hansson, also known as DHH, is a Danish programmer, entrepreneur, and author, best known as the creator of Ruby on Rails, a popular web application framework. Heinemeier Hansson is also a partner at Basecamp, a project management and collaboration software company he co-founded. His contributions to software development have earned him widespread recognition, with Ruby on Rails being used by thousands of developers and companies worldwide. Heinemeier Hansson is also a vocal advocate for remote work, simplicity in business, and sustainable work practices, ideas he explores in his bestselling books Rework and It Doesn’t Have to Be Crazy at Work. In addition to his work in tech, he is an accomplished race car driver, having competed in the 24 Hours of Le Mans. Heinemeier Hansson’s approach to work-life balance and entrepreneurship has made him a thought leader in the tech community, where he continues to challenge traditional business practices and advocate for more human-centered approaches to work
Jan Losert is a visionary author and digital design expert, renowned for his contributions to the intersection of technology and creativity. His most significant work includes co-authoring "Design Systems Handbook," which has become a seminal guide for creating cohesive and efficient design frameworks. Losert's expertise extends to his role as a speaker and educator, where he passionately shares his insights on user experience and interface design. In addition to his literary achievements, he co-founded several successful startups, leveraging his deep understanding of design to drive innovation. His work continues to influence and inspire both emerging and established designers worldwide.
Alexis Ohanian is an American entrepreneur, investor, and co-founder of Reddit, one of the world’s most popular social news and discussion platforms. Ohanian is also a prominent advocate for open internet and net neutrality, and he has invested in numerous startups through his venture capital firm, Initialized Capital. In addition to his work in tech, Ohanian is involved in philanthropy, supporting causes related to women’s rights, education, and social justice. He is married to tennis star Serena Williams, and together they advocate for gender equality and inclusive leadership. Ohanian’s influence in the tech world and his commitment to social impact have made him a respected figure in both business and activism.
Ray Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest and most successful hedge funds in the world. He is also the author of the bestselling book Principles, where he outlines his philosophy on life, leadership, and investing. Ray is renowned for his unique approach to transparency, radical truth, and thoughtful disagreement within organizations. His insights into economics and investing have made him one of the most influential figures in the financial world. Dalio continues to be a thought leader in business, economics, and philanthropy.
Andrew Lokenauth is a distinguished author and financial expert known for his insightful contributions to personal finance and investment literature. With a career spanning over a decade, he has written extensively on topics such as wealth management, financial planning, and market analysis. Lokenauth's works are celebrated for their clarity and practical advice, making complex financial concepts accessible to a broad audience. He has been featured in numerous financial publications and has established himself as a trusted voice in the industry. Beyond his writing, Lokenauth is also a sought-after speaker, sharing his expertise at various seminars and workshops.
Glenn Beck is a prominent American media personality, political commentator, and author known for his provocative and often polarizing views. He gained widespread recognition as the host of "The Glenn Beck Program," which aired on Fox News and later transitioned to radio and digital platforms. Beck is also a prolific writer, having authored multiple New York Times bestsellers, including "The Overton Window" and "Arguing with Idiots." His work often explores themes of American history, politics, and social issues, resonating with a conservative audience. Additionally, Beck founded Mercury Radio Arts, a multimedia production company, further solidifying his influence in both media and literature.
Nat Eliason is an influential writer, entrepreneur, and educator known for his insightful work on personal growth, productivity, and digital marketing. He founded Growth Machine, a successful SEO and content marketing agency that has helped numerous companies expand their online presence. Eliason's thought-provoking articles on his blog cover a wide range of topics, from philosophy to health, attracting a large and engaged audience. Additionally, he authored "Effortless Output with Roam," a comprehensive guide on using the Roam Research tool for knowledge management. Through his diverse contributions, Eliason has established himself as a significant voice in the realms of self-improvement and digital strategy.
Andrew Wilkinson is a distinguished author and entrepreneur, best known for his insightful business writings and contributions to the tech industry. He co-founded MetaLab, a prominent design agency that has shaped the user experience of major platforms like Slack and Coinbase. Wilkinson's entrepreneurial journey and his publications provide valuable perspectives on startup culture, innovation, and leadership. His writing, often featured in leading business magazines and his personal blog, has garnered a wide readership for its practical advice and engaging storytelling. Andrew continues to influence both literature and the business world with his unique blend of creativity and strategic thinking.
Showing 8 of 22 related collections
“Good forecasting is about managing our own beliefs.”
Superforecasting
By Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Discover a world of knowledge through our extensive collection of book summaries.
Philip E. Tetlock is a renowned psychologist, author, and professor, known for his pioneering research in the field of judgment and decision-making. He is particularly esteemed for his work on expert forecasting and the psychology of prediction, which has significantly influenced both academia and practical applications in policy-making.
Tetlock is best known for his acclaimed books, including "Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?" (2005), which critiques the efficacy of experts' predictions on political events, and "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" (2015), co-authored with Dan Gardner. In "Superforecasting," Tetlock explores the traits and methodologies that distinguish exceptional forecasters and emphasizes the importance of probabilistic thinking in uncertain environments.
His writing style is characterized by clarity and accessibility, often blending empirical research with practical insights, making complex ideas understandable to a broad audience. Tetlock has also contributed to the discourse on accountability and the cognitive biases that affect decision-making, establishing himself as a leading figure in the intersection of psychology, policy, and future studies. He currently teaches at the University of California, Berkeley, where he continues to influence students and scholars alike.
Dan Gardner is a Canadian author and journalist renowned for his insightful exploration of risk, decision-making, and human behavior. He is the co-author of the bestselling book "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," alongside Philip E. Tetlock, which delves into the principles of effective forecasting and the psychology behind decision-making processes. Gardner’s notable works also include "Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear," where he examines how fear influences our perceptions and policymaking.
Gardner's writing is characterized by a blend of rigorous research, engaging storytelling, and a commitment to clarity, making complex subjects accessible to a broad audience. His ability to interweave personal anecdotes with empirical evidence helps to illuminate the nuances of his themes. With a background in journalism, Gardner's work reflects both thorough investigation and a narrative style that captivates readers. He continues to contribute to discussions on risk and decision-making through various media and public speaking engagements.
Key information about the book.
Buy on Amazon
Buy via BookShopSupport local bookstores: BookShop gives a portion of each sale to independent bookshops!
In "The Psychology of Money," Morgan Housel unravels the complex relationship between our emotions and financial decisions. Through captivating anecdotes and profound insights, he reveals that wealth isn't just about numbers, but about behavior and mindset. The book challenges conventional wisdom, urging readers to understand the subtle psychological forces that influence our spending and saving habits. Housel's reflections highlight the power of patience, humility, and a long-term perspective in building true financial success. Prepare to rethink everything you thought you knew about money and its role in your life!
In "Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics," Nobel laureate Richard Thaler takes readers on a riveting journey through the evolution of behavioral economics, a field that challenges traditional economic theories. Thaler candidly shares his experiences and groundbreaking experiments that reveal how human behavior often defies rational expectations, leading to surprising choices in everyday life. With a blend of humor and keen insight, he highlights the quirks and biases that influence decision-making, reshaping our understanding of markets and policies. This enlightening narrative not only unveils the complexities of human behavior but also emphasizes the importance of incorporating psychology into economic thinking. Dive into a world where misbehavior leads to profound revelations about the way we live, work, and decide!
In "Nudge," behavioral economists Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein unveil the subtle art of influencing choices and shaping outcomes without restricting freedom. They explore how small, seemingly insignificant changes in the way options are presented can lead to drastically improved decisions in health, finance, and overall happiness. With compelling real-world examples and engaging insights, the authors demonstrate how understanding human psychology can empower individuals and policymakers alike. Dive into a world where choice architecture transforms lives and reshapes society's approach to welfare. Discover the hidden nudges that could change everything about the way we choose!
In 'I Will Teach You to Be Rich, Second Edition,' Ramit Sethi provides a no-nonsense guide to mastering personal finance with a blend of humor and practicality. He challenges conventional money advice and introduces readers to a unique banking system for maximizing their savings. Through straightforward strategies, Sethi reveals how to automate finances and invest wisely for the long term. Each chapter brims with actionable tips that encourage readers to take control of their financial futures. With insights that delve deep into psychology and behavior, this book is a game-changer for anyone seeking to build real wealth.
In 'Originals', Adam Grant explores the traits and habits of those who dare to challenge the status quo. He delves into the psychology behind innovation, revealing how creative thinkers cultivate ideas that can reshape industries. The book is packed with research-backed insights and compelling stories of nonconformists who made a difference. Grant's engaging narrative encourages readers to embrace their originality and take calculated risks. Will you be inspired to unleash your inner original and change the world?
In "Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion," renowned psychologist Robert Cialdini unveils the hidden forces that drives our decisions. Through captivating anecdotes and groundbreaking research, he introduces six key principles of persuasion that shape everyday interactions. From the power of reciprocity to the allure of authority, Cialdini reveals how marketers, salespeople, and even friends subtly manipulate our choices. As you navigate the complexities of influence, you'll discover how to recognize and harness these tactics for your own benefit. Prepare to question your instincts and master the art of persuasion—are you ready to see behind the curtain?
Dive into the mind of Charlie Munger, a legendary investor and confidant of Warren Buffett, who shares his extraordinary wisdom on decision-making and life strategy. This book decodes Munger's multi-disciplinary approach to thinking and outlines practical lessons drawn from diverse fields like psychology, mathematics, and philosophy. Readers will discover how Munger's principles can lead to better judgments and ultimately, success. With engaging anecdotes and sharp insights, this exploration of Munger's philosophy challenges traditional ways of thinking. Uncover the secrets behind Munger's unmatched clarity and learn how to apply these timeless principles to your own journey.
In 'Mistakes Were Made (but Not by Me)', Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson explore the psychological mechanisms of self-justification and the often-unconscious ways we avoid admitting our wrongs. With compelling examples from history, psychology, and personal anecdotes, the authors reveal why people, from individuals to large organizations, refuse to accept accountability. This thought-provoking book challenges readers to confront their own biases and the cognitive dissonance that influences decision-making. Will you choose to embrace the discomfort of acknowledging your mistakes? Dive into this enlightening read and discover the profound impact of accountability on personal growth and relationships.
Download our mobile app to enjoy your favorite books on the go. Get access to exclusive features, offline listening, and personalized recommendations.
